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Posted by on May 11, 2012 in Business, Inspirational, Social Media | 10 comments

Is Facebook Already Over?

As we cruise through Facebook’s “quiet period” on its way to its IPO, and as the media whips us into a speculative frenzy over this fascinating corporate wunderkind, I can’t help but wonder:

Is Facebook already on its way out?

I’m certainly no swami, and there’s no way I can answer that question. I have no insider information that might lead me to believe that the world’s undisputed #1 social platform is in any sort of trouble whatsoever. But I have a few questions or you:

Is Facebook Exxon-Mobil, or is it Sears?
Is Facebook GE, or is it HP?
Is Facebook Amazon, or is it Myspace?
Is Facebook Google, or is it Pets.com?

I could continue, but pretty soon I’d run out of companies on the left: thriving ones that have lasted through a crisis (or two, or ten) and continue to thrive.

This post isn’t about any of these companies, though. It isn’t even really about Facebook. Rather, this post is about something most of us don’t like to admit, something that makes a lot of us squirm:

Companies are ephemeral. Like flowers. Like balloons. Companies aren’t meant to last.

There is nothing permanent about a company. That is scary to admit, I know. I hope it’s also liberating.

You know what is lasting? Truth. Best practices come and go, but winning principles don’t change with the season – indeed, they don’t fade at all.

We are in The Age of Change. Throughout our careers, we will see different companies rise and fall; only a few will rise again. We ourselves will experience wildly different conditions in our work – some of which none of us can even yet imagine! Looking back from our retirement parties on our 85th birthdays, it may look as if we changed companies, jobs, even careers faster than a runway model changes clothes. So what?

What will not change is truth: the same truth that held for Pericles and Benjamin Franklin and Warren Buffett will remain true for us as well, and for our grandchildren, and their grandchildren.

Change can be scary. Don’t get sucked in. How we work, what we work on… these may change drastically in the years ahead. Why we work, what we strive to accomplish? There’s nothing ephemeral about that.

Live your principles. Nothing else will matter.

*Notice that seven of those eight companies I list are still in business. HP in particular may yet see a resurgence – it won’t take much, just a couple of years of talented leadership. I’m rooting for them.

Ted Coine (93 Posts)

Author | Speaker | Consultant Ted Coiné is one of the most influential business leaders on Twitter, with a following of over two hundred thousand and growing rapidly. He has been ranked by both Huffington Post and Forbes for his business leadership and social media influence. An inspirational speaker, Ted is author of Five-Star Customer Service and Spoil ’Em Rotten! Prior to writing his first book, Ted was founder and CEO of Coiné Language School, a B2B company he brought from his living room to a $10 million valuation in four years by focusing relentlessly on customer service. He is currently writing his third book, about how social media is transforming leadership and business in this exciting new century. Ted and his family live in Naples, Florida, where he is active in the tech startup scene.


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  • http://Www.dicksonstkd.com Bob Dickson

    Great food for thought! As you said, scary to think about, but who we are and what we do are seldom the same thing outside of our own heads. The “Whys” matter more than “whats” and “hows”.

    • http://www.shiftandswitch.com Ted Coine

      Thanks Bob. Get the “why” straight, keep it always close to the front of your mind, and the rest seems to fall in place more easily. …Or so I’ve observed.

  • http://pendantry.wordpress.com Colin Reynolds

    While I agree with your sentiment, I disagree with your premise.

    Once upon a time it was ‘truth’ that the sun revolved around the Earth. After a long, long while, it became clearly ‘true’ that it’s exactly the opposite. Companies rarely last a single human lifetime, we each can see even the biggest go to the wall. While truth is just as ephemeral as everything else; we don’t see it, because when it does shift, truth generally changes ever so slowly — often over generations — until what was once black is now white. (What colour was the skin of Jesus Christ?)

    • http://www.shiftandswitch.com Ted Coine

      Colin,

      Interesting, but here’s why I disagree with you: nothing changed about the sun. The sun has been at the center of our solar system for billions of years, and no matter what we decide in the future, it isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. Our understanding of what was true changed, but the truth never did.

      Truth isn’t subjective. What we humans must do is try our best to uncover it. In leadership, what is common practice or perceived wisdom will change, but the basic rules of human psychology and motivation will not change just because our understanding does.

      Medical science hasn’t sorted the truth from crude understanding yet, and I tend to think of psychology as about a century behind medicine – though the optimist in me thinks that century-long gap is shortening as the biology and philosophy of psychology merge. Even the “hardest” science, physics, is still exploring to get it right. It isn’t that Aristotle was right and Newton made him wrong, and then Einstein made Newton wrong – it’s that each came closer to what is actually true.

      I could go on for hours – this is one of my lifelong favorite subjects. I’ll spare you, at least this time. (You’re welcome for that! lol)

      • http://pendantry.wordpress.com Colin Reynolds

        I think we have to agree to disagree. It’s your opinion that truth is objective: In my opinion, truth is very subjective. Reality is defined by how we perceive it.

        Q: Does a tree, falling alone in a forest, make any sound?
        A: Of course it does: it says “oh, shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit!”

  • http://www.shiftandswitch.com Ted Coine

    While I never intended this post to actually be about Facebook – it’s about the passing nature of businesses in general – I caught this story by NPR’s Planet Money team that I found fascinating. I’ll bet you will, too.

    In the near future, I’m going to share my thoughts on the entire concept of metrics in business. Consider this a primer. If we can’t trust the legitimacy of a FB “like,” what metric can we like? (Sorry, headquarters spreadsheet manager, this is for you!)

    http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2012/05/16/152736671/this-guy-will-sell-you-sell-you-1-000-facebook-likes

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  • http://www.shiftandswitch.com Ted Coine
  • http://stevenljohnson.org/ Steven L. Johnson

    I think Facebook is a poorly positioned for the long run. They were in the right place at the right time, executed a solid land grab strategy, but only provide OK functionality for either users or advertisers.

    Here’s an op-ed from the Philly Inq. I wrote on the topic: http://community.mis.temple.edu/stevenljohnson/2012/06/05/predicting-the-demise-of-facebook/

    • http://www.shiftandswitch.com Ted Coine

      I love it, Steve! Great article, and terrific metaphor: a land grab strategy! That’s exactly right.

      The funny thing about this article is, it isn’t actually about Facebook. It’s about every company. Oh, well.

  • http://brainbasedbiz.blogspot.com Robyn McMaster

    Ted, while business is mulling over whether Facebook is out, I do know that many families and others use this as a main communication tool. I sense it is the preference of many simply because it has become a “comfort zone.” Some people simply have to be toppled out of comfort zones before they will change.

    I so agree with you that change is inevitable, no matter what. It’s just a matter of how soon. :-)